A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management          下载免费PDF全文

Xiang Cheng  Kurt K. Benke  Craig Beverly  Brendan Christy  Anna Weeks  Kirsten Barlow  Mark Reid 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1641-1662

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Gädeke  Herwig Hölzel  Hagen Koch  Ina Pohle  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3978-3998

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic Performance of the Arc-Shaped Bottom-Mounted Breakwater     

楚玉川  程建生  王景全  李志刚  江克斌 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):749-760

The problem of the hydrodynamic interaction with the arc-shaped bottom-mounted breakwaters is investigated theoretically. The breakwater is assumed to be rigid, thin, impermeable and vertically located in a finite water depth. The fluid domain is divided into two sub-regions of inner and outer by an auxiliary circular interface. Linear theory is assumed and the eigenfunction expansion approach is used to determine the wave field. In order to examine the validity of the theoretical model, the analytical solutions are compared to agree well with published results with the same parameters. Numerical results including wave amplitude, surge pressure, and wave force are presented with different model parameters. The major factors including wave parameters, structure configuration, and water depth that affect the surge pressure, wave forces, and wave amplitudes are discussed and illustrated by some graphs and cloud maps.  相似文献   

大型射电望远镜主反射面调整方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙正雄  王锦清  虞林峰  张志斌  王广利 《天文学报》2024,65(2):15

随着毫米波天文学和空间通信的重要性日益提高, 对天线性能提出了越来越高的要求, 而天线性能往往受到其反射器表面精度的限制. 微波全息技术是一种快速有效的检测反射面天线表面轮廓的测量技术. 通过微波全息测量得到天线口径场, 计算天马65m射电望远镜反射面与理想抛物面的偏差. 天马65m射电望远镜的主反射面板是放射状的, 有14圈. 面板的每个角都固定在面板下方促动器的螺栓上进行上下移动, 且相邻面板交点处的拐角共用一个促动器. 采用平面拟合的方法可以计算各块面板拐角处的调整值, 但是同一个促动器会得到4个不同的调整量. 通过平面拟合, 同时以天线照明函数为权重的平差计算方法得到相邻面板拐角的一个平差值, 即天马65m射电望远镜1104个促动器的最佳调整值. 通过多次调整和新算法的应用, 天马65m射电望远镜反射面的面形精度逐渐提高到了0.24mm.  相似文献   

甘肃省重要古植物化石产地区划及保护利用     

王军  李小强  张海峰  郭兵  任文秀  彭措  冯备战  王玉玺  胡振波 《地质论评》2021,67(3):578-592

古植物化石是地质历史时期各类植物实体或遗迹的残留。对古植物化石产地进行系统的调查和区划研究是开展古生物化石保护和利用工作的基础。在资料研究和实地调查的基础上,对甘肃省24处重要古植物化石产地进行了评价和区划研究。甘肃省古植物化石产地可划分为北山地区、祁连山——河西走廊地区、鄂尔多斯和秦岭地区4个古生物化石大区以及6个古植物化石产地集中区。根据古植物化石产地的科学价值和美学价值,具体从科学性、稀有性、完整性、保存程度、可保护性5个单因素分别对24处重要古植物化石产地进行了评价。在单因素评价基础上进行了综合鉴评,共鉴评出世界级化石产地1处,国家级化石产地7处,省级化石产地16处。根据产地自然区划、行政区划等要素划分了古植物化石产地集中保护区6个。根据保护区内古植物化石产地级别及重要程度,划分出特级保护区2个,重点保护区2个和一般保护区2个。提出对重要古植物化石产地实行化石标本保护加原产地保护的建议。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地延安地区山西组山2段储层可动流体赋存影响因素分析     

刘江斌 《地质与勘探》2021,57(1):231-240

山2段是鄂尔多斯盆地延安地区致密砂岩气生产的重要层段,目前对其流体赋存规律认识明显不足。因此在铸体薄片、扫描电镜、X射线衍射、高压压汞、恒速压汞、核磁共振测试的基础上,分析该储层可动流体的赋存特征及其影响因素。结果表明:山2储层主要为岩屑石英砂岩和岩屑砂岩,溶蚀孔和晶间孔为主要储集空间,粒间溶孔显著发育。山2储层可动流体饱和度为34.74%～91.83%,平均为69.94%,T2谱多为双峰态,呈左低右高型。储层孔隙度、渗透率、孔隙类型、孔喉特征及胶结物影响可动流体饱和度。孔隙为可动流体提供主要空间,平均孔隙半径越大,平均喉道半径越大,孔喉比越小,可动流体饱和度越高。硅质含量越高,粒间孔保存越好,可动流体饱和度越高。铁方解石含量越高,孔隙破坏越明显,可动流体饱和越低。高岭石含量较高,长石溶孔及晶间孔发育较好,有利于流体流动,可动流体饱和度也较高。  相似文献   

基于恒速压汞技术研究页岩气储层孔隙结构:以湘西北地区五峰组页岩为例     

王静 《地质与勘探》2021,57(2):450-456

页岩气储层孔隙结构是页岩气富集成藏、储层评价和优选有利区的关键参数,区分孔隙和喉道是表征页岩气储层孔隙结构的关键。本文选择4块具有不同渗透率的湘西北地区奥陶系五峰组页岩为研究对象,基于恒速压汞实验讨论孔隙和喉道的大小、分布特征及其相互关系以及与渗透率的联系。结果表明:具有不同渗透率的页岩样品表现为较为相近的孔径分布特征但差异较大的喉道分布特征。页岩样品渗透率的大小与孔隙半径没有明显相关关系;喉道大小及其分布特征是控制低渗储层孔隙结构的关键要素之一。渗透率较低页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径小且集中分布为特征,而渗透率较大页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径大呈分散分布但主要以大喉道为特征。喉道特征是研究页岩气储层储集空间和吸附能力的重要部分,在以后对页岩气的勘探开发中应特别注意及重视。  相似文献   

哈尔滨市地下水中29种抗生素分布特征研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

马健生  王卓  张泽宇  刘强  李丽君 《岩矿测试》2021,(6):944-953

当前对抗生素滥用监管及其研究正在加强,近年来中国主要水域中抗生素均有不同程度的检出,地表水及地下水中抗生素的污染状况持续受到关注。因进入环境中的抗生素种类繁多、结构复杂,一般实验室难以实现同时分析多种类抗生素。本文在哈尔滨市共采集地下水样品26组,采样范围包括人口密集、工业生产、农畜业等生活生产地区。利用超高效液相色谱-三重四极杆串联质谱联用技术分析了样品中的磺胺类、喹诺酮类、大环内酯类、β-内酰胺类、四环素类、林可酰胺类等6大类共29种典型抗生素含量,研究了哈尔滨市地下水中典型抗生素的检出及分布状况。结果表明：①哈尔滨市地下水中6大类典型抗生素均有不同程度检出,其中以磺胺类、喹诺酮类、大环内酯类、四环素类为主,检出率分别为61.5%、46.2%、42.3%、38.5%;②哈尔滨市地下水检出的抗生素含量范围在0.02～612ng/L之间,其中磺胺噻唑、磺胺嘧啶、林可霉素检出的最高浓度超过100ng/L,相比于国内外部分地区（如中国北京、天津,西班牙巴塞罗那）喹诺酮类整体含量偏低;③检出抗生素含量较高的采样点位主要分布在城市的中部、南部和东部地区,这些区域也是该市人口相对密集区,且附近普遍分布有制药厂、家禽牲畜养殖厂、城市排污口等。由此揭示了哈尔滨市城市地下水中抗生素分布特征受人类生产生活活动影响且具有明显的相关性。  相似文献   

粤西河台金矿田糜棱岩XRD特征及其地质意义     

师爽  龚朝阳  焦骞骞  许德如  张胜印  常华诚  胡彬 《地质论评》2021,67(5):67060006-67060006

粤西河台金矿区位于钦州湾—杭州湾（钦—杭）结合带南段的云开地区,是典型的受韧性剪切带控制的金矿。然而,对于剪切带中有利于金成矿的地质环境及其成矿过程仍然存在争议。本文在对河台矿区高村矿床进行详细野外地质调查的基础上,通过X射线衍射（XRD）对含金剪切带中各类糜棱岩系列岩石进行系统研究,建立应力变化—成分变异的对比序列,从而进一步揭示剪切变形与金矿化的关系。结果显示,剪切带中白（绢）云母的含量在9%~40%,并且在初糜棱岩、无矿糜棱岩、含矿糜棱岩、无矿超糜棱岩、含矿超糜棱岩中含量呈现出逐渐递增的趋势。白（绢）云母主要为2M1型,b0值分布在0.55505~0.99002 nm之间,在初糜棱岩、无矿糜棱岩和无矿超糜棱岩中逐渐增高,分别形成在低压、中压和高压环境。可见,从初糜棱岩到超糜棱岩,随着变形强度的增加,热液活动也随之增强,从而新生成了大量白（绢）云母。然而,在含矿的糜棱岩和超糜棱岩中还存在一些低压白云母,推测其可能是在后期脆性裂隙中由于流体活动所新形成的。因此,成矿可能经历了两个阶段,即早期的韧性剪切变形阶段导致金的初步富集,后期叠加的脆性破裂阶段形成具有工业品位的矿体。另外,无矿超糜棱岩的石英含量（29.8%）明显低于糜棱岩（44.2%）,推测在形成石英脉型矿体过程中,部分热液可能来自于其围岩超糜棱岩。因此,相对于初糜棱岩和糜棱岩,超糜棱岩中更有利于金矿的形成。  相似文献